Tulips story is no stranger to all financial guys like me. However, with bitcoins, the story tends to be different...
Monday, 27 June 2022
From Tulips to Bitcoins: A History of Fortunes Made and Lost in Commodity Markets
Monday, 9 May 2022
Marketing Warfare: How to Use Military Principles to Develop Marketing Strategies
I read the Chinese version of this book around 20 years ago... Those days, I was too young, too naïve and too innocent to embrace the cruel reality of the business world. Now, I am in the age of mid 40's... So, I thought it will be nice to revisit this book with older, less naivety and zero innocent brain. Here we go...
1. Only the market leader should consider playing defense.
Thursday, 24 March 2022
My Life in Red and White
Arsene Wenger... a man who changed my life 25 years ago...
A coach tends to over-estimate the effectiveness of his communication. So, there are some rules that need to be taken into account:
Putting the bias and favoritism aside, actually I learn more from the other legend (which I hate him so much those days, LOL). Relatively, I think the book "Leading" is much better. However, due to my utmost love to Arsenal, this book brings a lot of sweet memories to me, and I am so nostalgic while reading this book. As a conclusion, thank you so much to Le Boss for bringing us every hard-fought matches, awesome players throughout his time at Arsenal and ultimately, the memories on Arsenal journey which Mikel Arteta is building on it. As mentioned by current gaffer ~~~ "Trust the Process" and all the best to the club I love so much!
Sunday, 13 March 2022
The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People
This book suddenly crossed my mind after reading a lousy book in "Atomic Habits". "Atomic Habits" really disappointed me. As such, I felt there is a need to revisit a book I read 20 years ago. Main thing is, I need to find out whether I really hate "Atomic Habits" that much or simply because this sort of books no more sounds appealing to me...
At the end, this is still the same "amazing" book I read 20 years ago. A reread after 20 years is an incredible journey. After all, when I can re-quote some of the nice quotes below, it clearly showed that this book is still applicable after years. Further to that, although the said 7 habits were practiced over the years, the revision on this book did trigger some new ideas on me particularly as well as my interdependent relationship.
Relatively, "Atomic Habits" do not have this sort of attraction. Well, credit must be given to the author of 7 habits. "Atomic Habits" may not be that bad. Perhaps, the presenting styles and the practical part is not as good as 7 habits.
Out of 10, I have no reason to revise my full rating 20 years ago. This book is still one of my bibles in life and amazingly, it is still perfectly good to maintain all the 7 habits for the rest of my life. Thumbs up and thumbs up to the late Stephen R. Covey!
My experience has been that there are times to teach and times not to teach. When relationship are strained and the air charged with emotions, an attempt to teach is often perceived as a form of judgment and rejection.
A sense of possessing needs to come before a sense of genuine sharing.
Knowledge is the theoretical paradigm. Skill is the how to do and desire is the motivation. In order to make something a habit, we have to have all three.
Effectiveness lies in the balance. Excessive focus on P results in ruined health, worn-out machines, depleted bank accounts and broken relationship. Too much focus on PC is like a person who runs 3/4 hours a day, bragging about the extra 10 years of life it creates, unaware he's spending them running.
There are 3 social maps: Genetic determinism, Psychic determination, Environmental determination to explain the nature of man.
Look at the word responsibility - "response-ability" - the ability to choose your response. Highly proactive people recognize that responsibility.
Proactive people are still influenced by external stimuli. But, their response to the stimuli is a value-based choice or response. It is our willing permission, our consent to what happens to us, that hurts us far more than what happens to us in the first place. It's not what happen to us, but our response to what happens to us that hurts us.
It is our willingness permission, our consent to what happens to us, that hurts us far more than what happens to us in the first place.
In the great literature of all progressive societies, love is a verb. Reactive people make it a feeling.
Proactive people focus their efforts in the Circle of Influence. They work on the things they can do something about. The nature of their energy is positive, enlarging and magnifying, causing their Circle of Influence to increase. Reactive people on the other hand, focus their efforts in the Circle of Concern.
Whether a problem is direct, indirect, or no control, we have in our hands to the first step to the solution. Changing our habits, changing our methods of influence and changing the way we see our no control problems are within our Circle of Influence.
Habit 1 says "You are the programmer." Habit 2, then, says "Write the program." Until your accept the idea that you are responsible, that you are the programmer, you won't really invest in writing the program.
Almost all of the world class athletes and other peak performers are visualizers. They see it; the fell it; they experience it before they actually do it. They begin with the end in mind.
Before a performance, a sales presentation, a difficult confrontation, or the daily challenge of meeting a goal, see it clearly, vividly, relentlessly, over and over again. Create an internal "comfort zone." Then, when you get into the situation, it isn't foreign. It doesn't scare you.
My maxim of personal effectiveness: Manage from the left; lead from the right.
The key is not to prioritize what's on your schedule, but to schedule your priorities. And this can be done in the context of the week.
The focus in steward delegation is on effectiveness, not efficiency. Certainly you can do it better by yourself, but the key is to empower someone else to do it. It takes time. You have to get involved in the training and development. It takes time, but how valuable that time is downstream! It saves you so much in long run.
The steward relatively compares to gofer focused on results instead of methods. The steward becomes his own boss, governed by a conscience that contains the commitment to agreed upon desired results. But it also releases his creative energies to achieve those desired results.
Real self-respect comes from dominion over self, from true independence. And that's the focus of Habits 1,2,3. Independence is an achievement. Interdependence is a choice only independent people can make. Unless we are willing to achieve real independence, it's foolish to try to develop human relations skills.
I suggest that in an interdependent situation, every P problem is a PC opportunity - a chance to build the Emotional Bank Accounts that significantly affect interdependent production.
Seek first to understand involves a very deep shift in paradigm. Most people do not listen with the intent to understand, they listen with the intent to reply. They're filtering everything through their own paradigms.
As long as the response it logical, can effectively ask questions and give counsel. But the moment the response becomes emotional, one needs to go back to emphatic listening.
The more proactive you are (Habit 1), the more effectively you can exercise personal leadership (Habit 2) and management (Habit 3) in your life. The more effectively you manage your life (Habit 3), the more Quadrant II renewing activities you can do (Habit 7). The more you seek first to understand (Habit 5), the more effectively you can go for synergetic Win/Win situation (Habits 4 & 6). The more you improve in any of the habits that lead to independence (Habits 1,2,3), the more effective you will be in interdependent situations (Habits 4,5,6). And renewal (Habit 7) is the process of renewing all the habits.
There is a gap or space between stimulus and response, and that they key to both our growth and happiness is how we use that space.
Tuesday, 3 August 2021
Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies
This book was highly recommended by a few friends. In fact, the topic itself was very attractive to me in the first place. The only question is, this book was written a long time ago. So, are the theories still applicable in today's world? Well, if Jeff Bezos also reading this book, there is no excuse for us to avoid this book...
Tuesday, 29 June 2021
Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones
Since "7 habits", I think I never found a book as good as the theory mentioned in 7 Habits. The said 7 habits served me well for the past 20 years to becomes the highly effective people as claimed by the late Stephen Covey. Now, I am into this atomic habits. The topic itself sounds appealing in the first place. Secondly, I was in a forum on books and this book keep on bombarding my fb wall in the said forum. So, here I am with a book that usually would not appear in my book shelf.
Wednesday, 24 March 2021
Unknown Market Wizards: The best traders you've never heard of
There is no way for any traders to miss out on Jack D. Schwager's book. This latest edition from my favorite author attracted me a lot since it is about "unknown" market wizards like me, LOL... so, the topic itself sounds really appealing to me!
Tuesday, 29 September 2020
Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets
Sunday, 5 April 2020
The Complete Guide to Spread Trading
Ended up... to be frank... I am quite disappointed with this book. First of all, this book is quite dull. I would have no hesitation to term it as dry reading. Well, it is similar to a book where we hated so much during those days in university, haha. Perhaps, the spread trading itself is boring (relatively compares to outright trading). So, it might not be the problem with the author. Secondly, I would have anticipated series of technique or fundamentally stuff that can help in spread trading. Ended up, there is nothing new under the sun. The information in this book can easily obtained from google. Finally, I do not agree that this book can helps to "earn a consistent flow of positive returns with less risk", as claimed by the author. By using "info" provided in this book, at most readers understand the fundamentally and logic behind the spread stuff. Apart from that, nothing much can be gain from this book.
Rating wise, I am going to rate this book at 4/10. Well, this is a good book for reference purpose. However, it does not provide much needed "skill" for spread trading. Having said that, I think traders should have this book on the shelf. After all, every trader needs a reference book on spread trading. I wish I could find some other and better books on spread trading in the future.
Wednesday, 4 March 2020
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution
Finally, we have a book that tells the whole story about Jim Simons. Well, I believe this book presented the real Jim Simons compares to those rumors and articles being circulated on the internet. The author did well in presented the whole chronology on how Jim Simons and co started till the latest. Along the way, there are newcomers as well as those who gave up. Hence, we can see how this quant revolution being made. Amazingly, it was an exciting but real tough journey.
You do not have to equipped yourself with great mathematical skill to read this book. The author did so well by presenting simple ideas that every reader shall be able to understand. After all, even if those coding was revealed, we might not understand at all. Basically, finance experts may not understand coding. Same thing applies to coder who may never understand the games of finance. So, again, what Jim Simons achieved, by combining both is really a remarkable stuff.
I believe some readers may be disappointed with this book. After all, this book does not reveal the real secret behind the success of Renaissance. However, like I mentioned above, unless you are a coder, otherwise, there is no point to show you the code. To me, this book is good enough. In fact, I rate it as excellent, 10/10! First of all, it is so hard to get the information on the mighty Jim Simons. Secondly, I am eager to know the history on how Renaissance being established. So, this book revealed what I want. This book is definately well worth reading. It is well written and surely a must read for those who works in financial market like me.
Last but not least... as listed below, I pick out certain points from the book which I found interesting. Thumbs up to the author in writing this book.
Simon quoted: "God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I rather have no tail and no flies. That's kind of the way I feel about publicity."
"The lesson was: Do what you like in life, not what you feel you 'should' do," Simon says. "It's something I never forgot."
Lenny Baum developed a saying that became the group's credo: "Bad ideas is good, good idea is terrific, no ideas is terrible."
Markov chains, which are sequences of events in which the probability of what happens next depends only on the current state, not past events.
In a Markov chain, it is impossible to predict future steps with certainty, yet one can observe the chain to make educated guesses about possible outcomes. Baseball can be seen as a Markov game.
A hidden Markov process is one in which the chain of events is governed by unknown, underlying parameters or variables.
"I don't want to have to worry about the market every minute. I want models that will make money while I sleep," Simons said. "A pure system without human interfering."
Stochastic equations, the broader family of equations to which Markov chains belong. Stochastic equations model dynamic processes that evolve over time and can involve a high level of uncertainty.
I strongly believe, for all babies and a significant number of grownups, curiosity is a bigger motivation than money. ~~~ Elwyn Berlekamp
Berlekamp argued that buying and selling infrequently magnifies the consequences of each move. Mess up a couple times, and your portfolio could be doomed. Make a lot of trades, and each individual move is less important, reducing portfolio's overall risk.
Berlekamp and others developed a thesis that locals, or floor traders who buy or sell, like to go home at the end of trading week holding few or no future contracts. Similarly, brokers on the floors of commodity exchanges seemed to trim future positions ahead of the economic reports. Medallion's system would buy when these brokers sold, and sell the investments back to them as they became more comfortable with the risk.
Certain trading bands from Friday morning's action had the uncanny ability to predict bands later that same afternoon, nearer to the close of trading. If market moved higher late in the day, it often paid to buy futures contracts just before the close of trading and dump them at the market's opening the next day.
"I don't know why planets orbit the sun," Simons told a colleague suggesting one needn't spend too much time figuring out why the market's patterns existed. "That doesn't mean I can't predict them."
Simons, too, became nervous when his fund went through rocky times. On the whole, though, Simons maintained faith in his trading models, recalling how difficult it had been for him to invest using his instincts. He made commitment to refrain from overriding the model, hoping to ensure that neither Medallion's returns, nor the emotions of his employees at Renaissance, influenced the fund's moves.
It continued to identify enough winning trades to make serious money, usually by wagering on reversions after stocks got out of whack. Over the years, Renaissance would add twists to this bedrock strategy, but, those would just be second order complements to the firm's core reversion to the mean predictive signals.
Never place too much trust in trading models. Yes, the firm's system seemed to work, but all formulas are fallible. This conclusion reinforced the fund's approach to managing risk. If a strategy wasn't working, or when market volatility surged, Renaissance's system tended to automatically reduce positions and risk.
Simons often emphasized the importance of not overriding their trading system. But, in market crisis, he tended to pull back on the reliance on certain signals, to the chagrin of researchers who didn't believe in ever adjusting their computer programs.
Medallion made between 150,000 and 300,000 trades a day, but much of that activity entailed buying or selling in small chunks to avoid impacting the market prices, rather than profiting by stepping in front of other investors. What Simons and his team were doing wasn't quite investing, but they also weren't flash boys.
Medallion still held thousands of lonf and short positions at any time, and its holding period ranged from one or two days to one or two weeks. The fund did even faster trades, described by some as high frequency, but many of those were for hedging purposes or to gradually build its positions. "I am not sure we're the best at all aspects of trading, but we're the best at estimating the cost of a trade, " Simons said.
Medallion still did bond, commodity and currencies trades, and it made money from trending and reversion-predicting signals. The gain on each trade were never huge, and the fund only got it right a bit more than half the time, but that was more than enough.
How the firm wagered was at least as important as what it wagered on. If they found a profitable signal, the wouldn't buy when the clock struck nine, potentially signalling to others that a move happened each day at that time. Instead, it spread its buying out throughout the hour in unpredictable ways, to preserve its trading signals.
Instead of the hit-and-miss strategy of trying to find signals using creativity and thought, now you can just throw a class of formulas at machine learning engine and test our millions of different possibilities.
Friday, 4 October 2019
Phantom of the Pits
This time around, I found it better. First of all, it is due to the original language and no flaws on the translation. Those technical items are surely easier to understand compares to the Chinese version. Secondly, I felt it smooth while reading this version. Having said that, the Chinese version actually did remarkably well in terms of translation. However, readers will definitely prefer the original version. This is the power being a Malaysian since we are trilingual in nature.
As times goes by... trading world had changed dramatically thanks to the introduction of algorithm and robotic trading over the years. As such, certain point are not so relevant today. For example, we are no more in the situation where slippage easily occurred unless a trader is still a "manual" trader. Secondly, due to the fast moving speed in internet, market trending seems get crowded and as a result, we see shorter trend these days. Hence, what the author mentioned on the day trader's edge over the position traders may not be relevant giving current market situation. Come to think about that... it will be nice if "Phantom of the Pits" can come out with the revised version of this book. Well... provided the so called "Phantom of the Pits" really exist in the first place, LOL!
This time around, I spend quite a lot of time in digesting this book. First of all... since there is no revise version to counter current market's situation, I need to brainstorm the idea of this book in response to the current trend less market. As we all know, market trending is not as great as last time. David Herding mentioned umpteen times that the market is simply overcrowded with trend following method. Hence, this book actually provided some limelight and alternative to the old school trend following style. For a full rating of 10, I am going to rate this book at 9. On the Chinese version, I rated it at 10/10. This time around, I reduced 1 point due to two reasons. Firstly, I found it quite annoying when the book ended with tons of articles by the author (not "Phantom of the Pits") which is not related to trading. Secondly, as I moved into old and bold trader (compares to 3 years ago), this book is not so inspiring. The quotes below tell the whole story. In the Chinese version, I managed to list out tons of quotes. This time around, the quotes selected not so much. Having said that, this book is still one of the best trading books I read. Thumbs up!!!
You must be larger when correct on a position than when your position is wrong. Each add onto the original position should be done in smaller and smaller steps.
It all depends on your trading plan. One correct way for a day-trader is to see that the position is proven correct and then add at a proper retracement. This will not be the case for trend trader. Trend trader would most likely have at least one add at a breakout or breakaway gap. Your method of adding must be validated by your trade plan.
Day traders will have problem with Rule 2 unless they position properly and understand that their adds must only be made correctly. Day traders are in for quick profit so it is hard to have a good add plan. Their best trader is to put all positions on at once and use Rule 1 to take them off unless or until proven correct. This is the proper probability in a loser's game like trading.
Trend traders will get larger when they are correct, but day traders will start larger and get smaller when they are wrong. Day traders can be large when they are wrong, but trend traders will never be large when they they are wrong. This is due to the nature of a loser's game for day traders. By reducing your positions when wrong, your exposure is not extreme for a day trader.
Rule 2 must be used if you expect to make money in long run. Your validation of how you add is according to your trading plan.
Day trading plan is certainly going to be geared for the quick profit, so why shouldn't you have your biggest position to work with from the start? Right or wrong, you are going to use Rule 1 to protect all cost.
This is your enemy... to love to be right. You will become the best trader you can be by being wrong small, not right small.
Most of your trades that don't confirm within a logical time frame are usually going to look bad sooner or later. Why not take the sooner?
Most traders look to remove their positions just as soon as they prove them right. They forget what their true purpose in trading really is. It is not only to make as much money as possible, but to make it in the least amount of time.
You could use day traders to your advantage in trading by knowing that they would have to get out by close.
You expect to be wrong if you are thinking and trading correctly.
Our thinking must become adult in trading. As a child, we often don't need a reason but just the rule. As an adult, to be effective in trading, it is important to know why and not just the rule.
The most critical time of a trade is immediately after you have just entered the position. This is the time you must be most sensitive to news and events.
If you using point and figure charts, you can see the 45-degree line of support and resistance.
Look for a system that back-tests data currently. What I mean by this is that it must be current in the last six month or so. What good is the system if it takes the last 50 years into consideration but not the current six months that reflects current market conditions best.
Compare both the long term and six month sets of data. If they conflict, you must refine the system somewhat to a better signal generator. If your can't refine it better, then use both set of signals and throw them out when conflict.
Monday, 15 April 2019
Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World
This is a book that every Malaysian are so familiar with.... after all, we had been exposed to the details of 1MDB scandal since many years ago. Being a Malaysian, I thought I know enough on the whole scandal. However, this book opened my eyes to more details that I wish to know. Credit must be given to the authors. You guys have put on hard work in collecting all the information. Well done!
I spend almost a month to finish this book. The story is so fascinating that I just cannot put it down. Perhaps this is due to the facts that the said scandal happened in Malaysia. If it happened elsewhere, I may not be so keen to explore further. The story begins in Penang and crosses the globe through Abu Dhabi, New York, Vegas towards Bangkok and China, where the mighty Low could be hiding right now. I am so amazed by the details analysis by WSJ reporters. Imagine, the brand of champagne was mentioned even though I do not give a damn on what they drank, haha! Further to this, tons of interview with dozens of peoples involved are presented in this book. So, it strengthen the facts that this scandal really happened such a way even though many will find it hard to believe. So, to sum it up, the authors did their part and it is a great effort in producing this book.
The flaw side... First of all, I thought many details on financial fraud were not explained. The whole "trick" was more like a story telling. Being in the finance industry myself, I found it hard to explain on the due diligence side. Well, some might argue that there are always some loopholes behind the rules and regulation. However, the facts that many mighty banks were involved and the said banks are all being "deceived" easily? Hard to believe... Secondly, this story is actually a super complex story to follow. We in Malaysia are exposed to the details almost daily. So, for us to understand the whole story is not difficult. However, a friend of mine in Australia found it messy. According to him, he lost interest after flipping for few chapters. So, the structure of this book may have some problems for those who are not familiar with the whole scandal.
For a full rating of 10, I am going to rate this book at 8. Well, there are some unanswered doubts especially on the tricky banking side. However, I do get more details as what I wish for. There are rumors there is a movie coming up on this book. Wow... really looking forward to see the movie!
Friday, 24 August 2018
Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets
This book is interesting. First of all, Jim Rogers's books are always interesting due to his very indifferent life and exciting way of leading his life. Secondly, this book is interesting as the author pointed out a lot of future progress in the world. As I am reading it late (after few years, oh my god!), some predictions by Jim Rogers either becomes reality or becomes irrelevant at the moment. Thirdly, this book is interesting to me as the whole book is not bored at all. After all, every human beings dream to have life like Jim Rogers. Hence, since we cannot make it, why not envy him? Haha... Finally, we got a book that travels all around the world. There is a Chinese idiom that says: A book holds a house of gold (书中自有黄金屋). Well, this book certainly meets that.
I read every book by Jim Rogers. Surprisingly, this book rates as one of my favorites. Perhaps, I am in the age of getting old. As such, I am no more the guy who is searching high and low for investment holy grain. I appreciate more on Jim Rogers's life journey. From there, I found the wisdom I want and I hope it will help to shape my entire life.
The small flaw in this book perhaps lies with the facts that there are some repetitions from his past book. Hence, a new reader may find this book perfect. But, old timers who had follows Jim Rogers for the past few years might get bored with the repetitions.
This book offered a lot of wisdom and interesting insights. To me, this is a book of Jim Rogers's life journey. The title itself tells the whole story. It is not only about how to be street smarts in the market. It is also about how to be street smarts as human beings. I highly recommend this book despite the small flaw as mentioned above. For a full rating of 10, I am going to rate this book at 8.
Last but not least... we just could not ignore the street smarts quotes from the book. Here we are:
Do not worry about failure. Do not worry about making mistakes in life. It is good to lose money, to go broke at least once, and preferably twice. But if you are going to do it, do it early in your career.
You can diversify, and you will be safe, but you are not going to be rich. Stay with what you know, do not jump around.
There are plenty of ways to make money on Wall Street, and just as in any endeavor, whether it is a music, art, or finance, you have to find your own way.
The fact is that these politicians and bureaucrats, including the secretary of the Treasury, know little about currencies. They speak out of both sides of their mouths, often at the same time, and will say whatever is most politically expedient at the moment.
Plato, in The Republic, says that the way societies evolve is by going from dictatorship to oligarchy to democracy to chaos and back to dictatorship. The Asian way seems to suggest that Plato knew whereof he spoke.
The Chinese are among the best capitalists in the world. California is more communist than China. Massachusetts is more socialist than China. People would rather do business in China than just about anywhere else in the world, including South Korea, including Europe and certainly including United States.
All the growth rate figures are unreliable. It is stupefying to me that India could claim to have a clue what is going on even in India, much less in China or in the United States. America is always revising its numbers, and most of them are made up. I have learned over the years not to pay attention to them. They are mainly exercises in public relations.
Monday, 6 August 2018
Think and Grow Rich: The 21st-Century Edition: Revised and Updated
This is the revised and updated version. So, I thought might as well give it a try. At the end, the so called revised and updated parts offered nothing except trying to praise every single content in the book. Examples given in the book are so "lame". Imagine people like Steve Jobs being quoted in the context. Irrelevant, right? I thought the published trying their best to re-brand the whole book. However, the assumptions given just make the whole book worse.
Relatively, I still preferred the original version. At the same time, I decided not to reread this book again in the future. This book shaped my life twenty years ago. However... as the practices in this book become my habit, it totally lost its attractiveness. This book serves as a motivational stuff for youngsters and those who are new into the entrepreneurship. But, for oldies like me, I do not find it inspiring anymore. As such, for a full rating of 10, I am going to rate this book at 1.












