Thursday, 13 June 2013

The Ultimate Trading Guide

This is a special book to me... In the first place, there were some spelling mistakes. As such, the first impression was not that good. Eventually, the contents getting better and better even though there are still some spelling mistakes, LOL. Surprisingly... at the end of the book; except the predictive stuff, I actually think this is a nice book...

Let me begin with all the flaws... Spelling mistakes aside, I started to lose my patience at the very beginning when all the predictive tools are present. As such, the first few parts on how to spot trends are so dull and boring to me. Well, it does not means the author presented something bad. The fact is: I do not belong to that school of thoughts.

Secondly, the second very bad impression came out when the author tried to promote their own software. It was mentioned several times in the book. However, since the promoting part is not obvious, I actually find myself accepting it at the end. Perhaps, credit must be given to the contents. At the end, if the contents are good enough, readers would not mind with all the marketing gimmicks.

Thirdly, this is a book with good main points... However, it is a book that never going deep enough to explain things in details. I thought the authors did so well in presenting their main ideas. However, newbies may find it hard to digest certain ideas (due to lack of detailing) even though those ideas are obviously the wisdom of trading.

With all the minor weaknesses as mentioned above, I actually found many good points in this book. Matured traders like me (still an amateur though) will enjoy this book. My requirements in reading trading books are very simple: I want to explore myself to new ideas. Meantime, if there are zero new stuff, valid old ideas with good presentation will help and serves as a good revision too. Obviously, this book did his part ~~~ It refreshes my mind with some of the long forgotten wisdom. It reminds me of the very important reason on why I stick to my current school of thoughts. In fact, I personally love the below mentioned myth and facts concerning trading systems:

Myth: Only good trading systems cost thousand of dollars.
Fact: A holy grail does not exist.

Myth: The market are too chaotic for a simple approach to work.
Fact: The market aren't really that complex. They are either trending or not. 

Myth: Markets are too different for a single approach to work.
Fact: We have never seen a single approach work in all markets. However, we have seen systems that work in a majority of markets. 

Myth: If a system trades multiple markets, then the parameter need to be optimized for each individual market. 
Fact: If a system is based off of sound market principles then it should be robust enough to work with similar parameters for all markets... Instead of fixed parameters you should use market defined parameters.

Myth: All the good systems are under control of multimillion & CTAs.
Fact: Most successful CTAs do use trading systems. The systems they use are the systems available to anybody.

Myth: Markets are constantly changing, therefore systems need to be re-optimized periodically.
Fact: There will be times when a market won't have any direction and during this time all systems will have draw downs. Re-optimizing a system will curve fit the most recent historical data. Who knows how long the market will continue to act in the same manner.

Myth: I should expect the same return and maximum draw down that was portrayed when I historically back tested my system.
Fact: In my experience, you should expect 1/2 the profit and twice maximum draw down. 

Myth: I can make 100% a year trading futures.
Fact: I have seen systems do this on a couple of occasions, but never consistently. 

The whole myth and facts brought me back to those naive days... Even though I am still an amateur, but it recorded my growth path and the myth and facts made me who I am today...

Rating wise; although I personally love this book, I am only rating it at 6/10. This book deserved a place on my personal library. However, I need to filter out those irrelevant stuff as mentioned above. Well, nothing is perfect in this world, LOL. 

9 comments:

  1. bro, if u r an amateur , what about most of the futures trader? u r the kai to here la.

    btw, what does it mean by " Instead of fixed parameters you should use market defined parameters. "??

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  2. sorry, not kai to.. is tai Kor

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  3. Zac:

    Sincerely, still in my learning path... Although more than 10 years of experiences, I guess I still need another few more years to qualify as mature trader...

    Market defined parameters are parameters that moves along with the latest volatility. For example, you use a fix 2 point from day high/low as stop. When volatility increases, the "fix 2 point" is no more relevant... As such, market defined parameters are more practical since it moves along with market movement...

    Alex

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  4. You hAVe always been generous when it comes to money. Thanks a lot.
    I would like to ask you a question.
    My main system has a drawdown of about 20-25% IN CPO this year but I took a trade against one of the signals by following another long term trend following system which caused me to limit my losses. And profits from fkli has helped to cushion some of the losses as well. So, the drawdown of the equity is roughly about 15%. The way I look at it, despite the bad performance of the system, the system still generated the minimum requirement of 30% accuracy. ANd I looked at the market condition, the condition has not been favourable for my system. Last year,the system performed very well. So, this year, not so good.

    Any opinion on this?

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  5. Young man:

    Very cheap 2 cents... not sure whether it helps or not, LOL...

    Honestly, it is hard to draw a conclusion from so little of info... But, the way I look at it... I think ok as the said drawdown is consider acceptable...and the fact that FKLI helps in diversification makes the whole thing very much favorable...

    Alex

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  6. Bro, at what stage will u consider the drawdown as not acceptable?

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  7. Bro:

    It is once again depends on the "market" defined parameters (percentage) rather than a "fixated" one... So, it tends to fluctuate with the latest volatility of movement...

    Alex

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  8. Replies
    1. No problem, bro... just my very cheap 2 cents... cheers, man...

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