Saturday, 7 April 2012

Notes To The Prime Minister - The Untold Story of How Malaysia Beat the Currency Speculators


"Notes to the Prime Minister"…. True, it is a book with record of discussions between Tun Dr. Mahathir and Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/1998. Well, the title of “Notes” is appropriate… However, I am not so sure about “The Untold Story of How Malaysia Beat The Currency Speculators”… Are they beaten at the end? Hmm…. Foods for thought today…

Since I am not an expert, (If I am, Tun Dr. M might spot me walking down a street in Kuala Lumpur too, LOL) I am not going to dig much into the rational of peg and unpeg. Just a few obvious points…. First of all, as we can see, ringgit was pegged at a time when the great of Asian Crisis was already over. If Malaysia did not peg the ringgit in September 1998, the Ringgit would have gradually appreciated anyway (The movement of Rupiah and Won during that period will tell the whole story)…  Secondly, at the point the Ringgit was fixed against the USD in September 1998, I believe it had already settled around its long term equilibrium value. At the end, the so called “capital controls” failed to prevent capital outflow. At the same time, they were also imposed at a point in time where speculation was already dying away. Worse, the appreciation of the USD four years later made Malaysia’s exports completely uncompetitive… Finally, here is the man who was part of the team at Bank Negara which incurred huge exchange losses betting on the British Pound in 1992… Yet, Tun Dr. M spotted him walking down a street in Kuala Lumpur to teach him about currency and currency trading? Just an example… the issue of “Impossible Trinity” keeps on popping up in my mind when I read about his suggestions to lower down interest rates during the turmoil. With due respect, is he really the right man? Hmm…..


Forgive my sarcastic wording… I am just telling some facts based on my personal understanding. To sum it up, just take a peep at Korea and Indonesia (Thailand too despite the political turmoil). Obviously, the said countries are much better at the moment even though they accepted the so called “stringent conditions” from IMF! Want more evidence? Hyundai vs Proton? Not strong enough? Just check how many of you are using Samsung products at the moment, LOL.


Well, the good thing is… I am kinda fortunate that I am not in the political scene. Just read through the notes in the book… I would sum it up with one word: EXHAUSTED!!! Look at the time and schedule starting from walking on the Kuala Lumpur Street to the Argentina trip. Then, check through all the dates and times on the notes. It is really tough for two of them to work through the whole process. Like I mentioned above; I am not an expert. Hence, it is not fair for me to just criticize without appreciating their hard works. My final words on this two mighty political giant… taken the final results aside, I do believe they had did their part in their respective role. Big applaud on that…

Ok… summary on the book… Well, not a bad book to read… but, surely not an excellent book to recommend to book worms!!! LOL. In my humble opinion, this book is as good as” Doctor in the House” (which I did not bother to buy at all, LOL). Read it if you got time. If you are busy, there are plenty of better choices…. Rating? 5/10 with credit goes to the writing of author rather than the contents! LOL…

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