Friday, 4 January 2013

45 Years In Wall Street

W.D. Gann, the legend in Wallstreet.. In fact, I read a lot about him and I read a lot of his books too. However... somehow; I missed out this book... Sounds weird, but true; LOL...

First of all, I must admit that I am a big fan of Gann.... However, I am a sensible fan. I will not blindly supporting someone or something without real evidence. With my little experiences in this industry, there are few things which I could not agree more:

1. The one time that the stop loss order gets you out wrong, it makes up for it in the next nine times that it gets you out right. So, don't fail to use a stop-loss order. ~~~ Nine successes and one failure trade sounds too ideal in the world of investment although I do agree on the importance of stop-loss.
2. My time rule, which will help you in pyramiding, is to determine the time of the first reaction... This time rule, like other rule, works best on active high-priced stocks and should only be applied in active markets. ~~~ I love histories. But, I do believe histories reoccur only when situation allows...Furthermore, I am not a big fan of crystal ball. As such, this statement from my gurus is consider too "TA" to me, LOL.

Then, I am really frustrated with the case study on Dow Jones... Well, it did reflect the legend's 45 years in Wall Street. However, this type of case study seems misleading. The author tends to drew a conclusion after studied a specific sample. End of the day, this may end up as a fat tails that trapped plenty of traders into it. If a sample is so useful, statistic would not remain as merely statistic, LOL.

Similarly, I could not agree on the calculation of percentages that act as resistances and supports. At the end, it does not reflect the whole picture and it is just another sample that may works in certain time and may not be working at all in other time. End of the day, betting itself is about consistency. Losing consistently and winning consistently are major components that shape up the whole strategy. If a fixated percentage is good enough to determine a price movement, market itself would not be so complicated.

Well, please do not get me wrong... I still think this is a nice book...In fact, I find certain phrases and quotes which are good enough to serve as excellent reminders. For example; contradict to the general belief that change is important (Who moved my cheese? LOL); as according to my idol: In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind will soon have no change to mind. What a statement!!! LOL... Then, we got this very important chapter where the author express his view on the downfall of past market operators. On Lighter, Sully, Theodore H. Price and Eugene Scales, he concluded that most operators lost their money because they have only the desire for the power that money can give and want to corner the markets. On Jesse L. Livermore, the author thought that the said legend never studied the rules for keeping money. Besides, Jesse L. Livermore was portray as a man who wanted to rule and did not figure that the unexpected could happen. Same comment was made for the review of Doctor E. A. Crawford and Jordon of new Orleans. The author concluded the whole chapter by listing out some of those who are success in contradict to those who failed. To me, this is the best chapter of the whole book. I believe that there are plenty of ways to get successes. However, the factors behind failure stories do not seems to vary much. As such, it is easier to study failure stories compares to those big amounts of success achievements. After all, we do not really find plenty of failure stories available in the market....

Last but not least, this is how the author concluded his 45 years in Wall Street: These years have taught me my most PRECIOUS POSSESSION is TIME. The best use I can make of TIME is to use it to secure KNOWLEDGE which is more valuable in money... I have revealed some of my most valuable rules and secret discoveries, in hopes that others will work and study hard to learn and apply these rules. If they do, speculation and investing will no longer be gambling but will become a PROFITABLE PROFESSION. What a conclusion!!!

At the end, although it is a thin book (slightly more than 100 pages after deducted those charts); yet, it was thick enough in terms of knowledge and the author did passed down tons of wisdoms which are really helpful. After so many years, W.D. Gann remains my idol who is so predominant in my career. As such, although a thin book (in terms of pages), it did enough to nurture my thinking and belief to be a better trader. Having said that, I actually rated this book at high side despite the flaws as mentioned above. Out of 10, I am giving 9 for the erudition provided. The flaws as mentioned although remains as flaws, but it did triggered my mind to think further into it...

As a summary, I love this book as much as I adored the author. In fact, W. D. Gann remains one of my all- time favorite author. He is super human being that leaves tons of wisdoms for traders to explore and I think every true trader should appreciate what he left behind... What a legend! 

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