Wednesday, 24 March 2021

Unknown Market Wizards: The best traders you've never heard of

 

There is no way for any traders to miss out on Jack D. Schwager's book. This latest edition from my favorite author attracted me a lot since it is about "unknown" market wizards like me, LOL... so, the topic itself sounds really appealing to me!

As usual, Jack D. Schwager never disappointed us. This book is full of insights and numerous live trading experiences from the so called "unknown". As expected, the author with his usual excellent interviewing style did his best to dig out informative side from traders. We as readers and traders surely benefited by reading this book.

There are few that featured in this book really caught my attention. First, Jason Shapiro. I love his contrarian way... a way that I had been practicing for so long without realized that it is a contradict way of life! His contrarian ways are best explained in the book on the topic of bubble. When everyone is talking about a bubble and nobody actually owes it, the bubble is there to stay. When somehow everybody started to owe the bubble, the bubble will burst without a hint. (Splendid idea on contrarian!) So, it is not the price that makes the market bottom on bearish or vice versa. It is all about participation. Make sense!!!

Reading Jack D. Schwager's books is always a nice thing to do. However, we as traders tend to have problem reading it. The main thing is we are sort of bias in our own way. Everything that moves along with our existing strategy tends to stay favor while we reading this book. In opposite, we will find hard to those ideas that never sounds appealing since day one. As such, a reader for Market Wizard series must stay focus and read this book with neutral state of mind. Having said that, the author as usual did well in his interviews. At times, the question asked can be some good point to be taken by readers. A good example is this: I actually find trendline breakout to be one of the most unreliable signals. But that perception is a consequence of knowing where to draw the trendline with the benefit of hindsight. Another good point from this book (which the previous series of market wizards also pointed out same perspective) is there are some opposite techniques being used by two different traders. Yet, it proved to work since the trades presented in this book are all successful traders. A good example is the contradict approach on  trendline by Peter Brandt (use only horizontal breakout and never use trendline breakout) versus Jeffery Neumann (use only trendline breakout). End of the day, both methods work. That is the best part of trading. There is simply no single correct trading method!

Having read all market wizards by this author, I actually prefer all previous version compared to this. As usual, I will list out some good points below which are extracted from the book. However, this time around, I omitted few traders for the first time. This never happened when I read other market wizards. Well, there are two reasons. First, I simply do not agree with some of the idea presented. Secondly, I am in my 18 years into trading. So, perhaps I evolved along the way (I hope I am, haha) and there is nothing new under the sun. In view of that, I am going to rate this book at 6/10. Well, this book still served as one of the book that traders must read. However, one round of reading is adequate and there are not much surprises. Last but not least, listed below are some nice quotes from the book: 

Peter Brandt:

He took much smaller positions than he could. If your could protect your capital, you would always have another shot.

A popcorn trade is what I call a trade that you have profit on and then ride it all the way back down to where you got in. I try to avoid popcorn trades now. 

I used to trade patterns like symmetrical triangles and trendlines, which I no longer do. I only trade patterns where the breakout is through a horizontal boundary.

I don't want to know my open trade equity. So, I graph my equity based on closed trades only.

Optimizing your trading approach for the last series of trades is not a solution. I try to keep trading the same way. That's the only way I'll come out of a drawdown and get back on track. 

Strong opinions, weakly hold. Have a strong reason for taking a trade, but once you are in a trade, be quick to cut if it doesn't behave as expected.

Jason Shapiro:

To make a contrarian trading approach work, a method for timing entry into the markets:
1. Taking positions counter to the extremes of speculator market positioning.
2. Timing the entry into such positions based on market action.

Watching financial TV programs can be useful in your trading - as a contrarian indicator!

Have stop loss on every positions.

Managing increased risk of higher correlation markets by reducing overall positions size and by seeking inversely correlated trades to add to the portfolio.

You know you can identify traders or commentators who are reliably wrong - a task far easier than finding those who are reliably right - then their opinions could well be useful in a contrarian sense. 

Richard Bargh:

I used to have a habit that whenever I lost money in the market, I would spend less money. That type of attitude only causes your mindset and body to get tight, which stop you from trading well because you don't want to take any risk. A counterintuitive concept is to spend more when losing.

You don't have to exit a profitable trade all at once. Even if a trade reaches your target, it may make sense to keep a small portion of the positions, so you get some additional profit if the market keeps moving in the direction of original trade. 

Missed trades can be more painful and more expensive than trading losses.

The damage from a bad trade often extends well beyond the loss on the trade itself. By shaking up a trader's confidence, such trades can lead to missing winning trades the trader would otherwise taken. The resulting missed profits can often exceeded the loss on the original trade.

Amrit Sall:

I now know that 90% of the time, the market is not going to provide any opportunities, and 10% of the time, I will make 90% of my profits.

In the past, I have tended to implement trading ideas in a single market. I now try to execute trade ideas in multiple correlated markets.

Traders have to ask themselves whether they can handle being right only 30% of the time, or do they feel they have to be right day after day? 

Daljit Dhaliwal:

The reward/ risk ratio of a trade is dynamic and can change dramatically as the trade is held. Consider that you implement a trade, looking for a 300 point gain and risking in 100 point loss. If the market then moves 200 points in favor of the trade, the reward/ risk is now drastically different than when the positions was implemented. Dhaliwal manages the dynamic nature by taking partial profits. He argues that holding the entire position until it is exited is an attempt to be 100% right, at the risk of being 100% wrong. Taking partial profits as a trade moves in your favor not only responds to the fact that the reward/ risk of the trade is changing, but it is also another risk management tool. Another way of adjusting to the changing reward/ risk of a trade is to tighten the protective stop.

John Netto:

I want to be focus and still feel some anxiety when adding positions. In contrast, if I exhale in relief after a positions has gone my way and feel too relaxed, that is a warning sign of a possible impending market reversal. 

When you lose money in the market, let it go. Be on guard against the urge to make money back by taking previously unplanned trades. 

Jeffrey Neumann

Neumann enters his trade at the very point of breakouts from long downtrend lines - the earliest possible technical signal of a trend transition. Of course, this type of entry point often results in buying multiple false breakouts before a valid breakout occurs. But, Neumann gets out immediately if the breakout doesn't follow through.


Saturday, 21 November 2020

《素书》大成智慧

 

据说,张良靠着这本伟大的著作成就了刘邦汉朝四百年江山(无从考证)。我要求不高,接下来有个辉煌中的平淡二十年就足矣,😄。。。这类书籍我读过不少。不过,孤陋寡闻的我;“素书”我还真的没听过。因此,当老友赠送这本书时,我还真的吓了一大跳。中华五千年历史,我们这些凡夫俗子只能惊叹一句老话:学海无涯!!!!

这本书大道理很多。大道理不是不好,但是要把大道理说的生动,还得要劳动易中天袁腾飞这类作者才能让读者读的废寝忘食。据说,作者好像有个组织研究院。因此,他的研究院学生或许更能体会这本书的用意。以我个人而言,这本书挺闷的。第一,每一个大道理都是从原典开始。老实说,这几年文言文的功力真的开始减退了。因此,原典的开始对于我简直就是多余的。结果是,我跳过所有的原典而直接朝向译文。第二,类似这类书籍,或许需要一些生动的例子才能让整个哲学没那么沉闷。这方面,作者可能太正经了。(易中天袁腾飞宠坏了我们这些读者😆)很多大道理,虽说有理,但是就是激发不到内心的沸腾情绪。第三,张良的名字太响了。书的开头一开始就以张良做铒诱。期望太大,往往都是失望更甚。

十分满分,这本书我给于四分。整个素书有它的道理价值。毕竟人性的修身处事,除了中华文化,基本上欧美的智谋宝典还是有它欠缺的一面。但是。。。第一,我真的不太喜欢作者呈现的方式。第二,可能是年纪也大了,类似哲学的大道理越来越不吸引我。第三,基于生活真的很忙碌,这类修生养性的事还真的没什么兴致去处理😁。整体上,这本书或许真的不错,不过确实不是我喜欢的那杯茶。。。

Sunday, 15 November 2020

攻心术:22個长胜不敗的心理秘密

最近忽然很怀念繁体字。。。其实繁体字有它美妙的一面。总觉得繁体字才是真正中文的精髓。很可惜,中国大陆就是喜欢简体字。现实问题。中国书籍和马币的贬值却又不得不让我这种书呆子不让步。所以,很多时候,中国书籍始终是首选。好了,废话不多,来探讨一下这本攻心术吧!

这本书其实不错。作者的分析,搭配上个案的解释其实到挺到位的。但是,我们这类职场老油条可能对这本书的共鸣程度不高。第一,里头好多招数我也用了二十多年。所谓的攻心,我个人见解为诚意是攻心的至高境界。第二,就业也好,销售谈判也好,近年来,可能也少做了。毕竟,这个年龄如果还在烦着就业问题,我的人生也算挺失败的。社交更不用说;人生走了一大半,如果社交还是首选,我还真的不太怜惜我自己。

这本书籍其实适合社会新鲜人阅读。怎么说呢?里头的招数其实是招招见血。很多社会菜鸟缺乏的正是这类心里战术。毕竟,不是每个人天生都特别懂得运用情商和心里战术来生存。因此,这本书对于这一类人或许更能启发到他们菜鸟的历程。十分满分,基于个人已经是只疲惫不堪的老鸟,因此只能打个4分。整体上,阅读这本书还是挺有趣的。至少,回味一下年轻到如今走过的点点滴滴。读完整本书后,突然有种感觉:好成功噢!终于成功的把自己变成当年最鄙视的那个人了!😄