Saturday, 21 November 2020

《素书》大成智慧

 

据说,张良靠着这本伟大的著作成就了刘邦汉朝四百年江山(无从考证)。我要求不高,接下来有个辉煌中的平淡二十年就足矣,😄。。。这类书籍我读过不少。不过,孤陋寡闻的我;“素书”我还真的没听过。因此,当老友赠送这本书时,我还真的吓了一大跳。中华五千年历史,我们这些凡夫俗子只能惊叹一句老话:学海无涯!!!!

这本书大道理很多。大道理不是不好,但是要把大道理说的生动,还得要劳动易中天袁腾飞这类作者才能让读者读的废寝忘食。据说,作者好像有个组织研究院。因此,他的研究院学生或许更能体会这本书的用意。以我个人而言,这本书挺闷的。第一,每一个大道理都是从原典开始。老实说,这几年文言文的功力真的开始减退了。因此,原典的开始对于我简直就是多余的。结果是,我跳过所有的原典而直接朝向译文。第二,类似这类书籍,或许需要一些生动的例子才能让整个哲学没那么沉闷。这方面,作者可能太正经了。(易中天袁腾飞宠坏了我们这些读者😆)很多大道理,虽说有理,但是就是激发不到内心的沸腾情绪。第三,张良的名字太响了。书的开头一开始就以张良做铒诱。期望太大,往往都是失望更甚。

十分满分,这本书我给于四分。整个素书有它的道理价值。毕竟人性的修身处事,除了中华文化,基本上欧美的智谋宝典还是有它欠缺的一面。但是。。。第一,我真的不太喜欢作者呈现的方式。第二,可能是年纪也大了,类似哲学的大道理越来越不吸引我。第三,基于生活真的很忙碌,这类修生养性的事还真的没什么兴致去处理😁。整体上,这本书或许真的不错,不过确实不是我喜欢的那杯茶。。。

Sunday, 15 November 2020

攻心术:22個长胜不敗的心理秘密

最近忽然很怀念繁体字。。。其实繁体字有它美妙的一面。总觉得繁体字才是真正中文的精髓。很可惜,中国大陆就是喜欢简体字。现实问题。中国书籍和马币的贬值却又不得不让我这种书呆子不让步。所以,很多时候,中国书籍始终是首选。好了,废话不多,来探讨一下这本攻心术吧!

这本书其实不错。作者的分析,搭配上个案的解释其实到挺到位的。但是,我们这类职场老油条可能对这本书的共鸣程度不高。第一,里头好多招数我也用了二十多年。所谓的攻心,我个人见解为诚意是攻心的至高境界。第二,就业也好,销售谈判也好,近年来,可能也少做了。毕竟,这个年龄如果还在烦着就业问题,我的人生也算挺失败的。社交更不用说;人生走了一大半,如果社交还是首选,我还真的不太怜惜我自己。

这本书籍其实适合社会新鲜人阅读。怎么说呢?里头的招数其实是招招见血。很多社会菜鸟缺乏的正是这类心里战术。毕竟,不是每个人天生都特别懂得运用情商和心里战术来生存。因此,这本书对于这一类人或许更能启发到他们菜鸟的历程。十分满分,基于个人已经是只疲惫不堪的老鸟,因此只能打个4分。整体上,阅读这本书还是挺有趣的。至少,回味一下年轻到如今走过的点点滴滴。读完整本书后,突然有种感觉:好成功噢!终于成功的把自己变成当年最鄙视的那个人了!😄

Sunday, 8 November 2020

套利对冲投资实战宝典

 

哥儿们介绍的一本书。。。一本关于套利的书籍。。。交易了十七年,老实说,要找一本关于套利的书籍简直是难如登天!我这哥儿们的确很够意思。一直以来,他就好像我的百科全书,要什么有什么。说他是我的小叮当,还真的一点儿也不为过。。。

这是书有个小特点。主题虽然是套利,但是作者很用心的把一些交易上有关联的讯息和历史背景也一并分享给读者。再来,作者除了整理出理论,理论上还配搭了许多实战交易以供读者参考。这一点,作者是做得挺到位的。套利这玩意儿一直是交易者守口如瓶的绝世葵花宝典。除了自个儿掏腰包买经验,基本上这个游戏几乎是行内的一个玄机。因此,这本书至少起到了一定的作用。我相信,读者会从这本书找到一些一直以来很想解开的谜底。

想尝试鸡蛋里挑骨头,但是,还真的捡不到太多骨头。唯一的小骨髓是,这本书整体上都着重在内地的套利交易。如果有些美国的个案,我相信这本书我会给足满分。好吧,那十分满分,这本书怎么说都值个九分吧。对于很想了解套利交易的读者们,这本书个人是挺推荐的。毕竟,市面上关于套利的书籍的确是寥寥无几。再来,对于我这个小玩家,基本上这本书也满足了我对套利的好奇心。未来,很期待这类书籍陆续登场。毕竟,套利这个秘密也守太久了。。。

Tuesday, 29 September 2020

Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets

This is my 4th visit on this book. Amazing, till today, I still have the urge to reread this book. My last read was in year 2017. Three years back, I rated this book at 10/10. Let us see whether this book still attracts me after three long years... 

This time around, I felt quite bored especially the front part of this book. I may had improved over the years. I may had stop learning over the years. Basically, there are a lot of possibilities behind that. However, when I flip into Part 3 on developing the system, my mood immediately swung back. Yes, I got the answer. The part 1 and part 2 did not sounds appealing to me anymore as I had been doing the same routine task for almost 17 years!!! Unfortunately, Part 3 still sounds good to me as it seems I am still learning on the trading path. One of the main reason was on the changes of trend over the years. As we all know, trend following no more serves as a holy grain to traders for some time. The advance technology not only made the world faster. In fact, it was on rapid speed every year in the world of trading. As such, the theory in this book especially on playing around with R stuff (the initial risk) becomes more and more important these days. 

Overall... after finished this book, the fourth visit still seems to be a worth visit. This is a book that needs to revise and refresh every now and then. End of the day, the pace on the market obviously changed. However, the price is still the price. We traders are evolving each year as according to the market's evolvement. In view of that, for a full rating of 10; I am going to rate this book at 7/10. I hope that I have the chance to rate this book at 1/10 in the future. If I keep on coming back and rerated this book at high, it means I actually stop learning. Finger cross that the day of 1/10 will come soon... 

Thursday, 20 August 2020

蔡康永的情商课:为你自己活一次

 好久没看书了。。。四个多月,疫情的干扰让我加速成长。有些人开不了工,难得偷闲度月(如年?)。我却恰恰相反。现在,终于可以偷个半日闲把书架上的图书慢慢啃掉。都说四个多月了,一开始当然得酝酿读书的情绪。好吧,就来本轻松写意的书籍呗!

结果是。。。好选不选,竟然选了一本那么沉闷的书籍。基于太久不看书,一开始想找本比较轻松又不需要绞尽脑汁的“开胃书”。的确,这本书的确是不会伤到脑细胞。原因是,这本书根本没办法把我的脑袋敲醒!!!

第一,一开始我并不认同作者的情商理论。毕竟,我没有菜主播的那种智慧。里头的理论我怎么读都是一堆我不认同的歪理。第二,好讨厌每个理论的开头白:我有个艺人朋友!以作者的文学角度,应该会有更新鲜的开端吧!或许,作者有心那么写。毕竟,这也是为自己而活的表现吧!第三,我很努力的把这本书啃到一半。以我的毅力,我很少那么容易放弃。但,这一回,我还真的投降了。

我不知道其他读者对于这本书的评价。以我个人而言,这本书我真的不太喜欢。10分满分,本人给予0分!或许是年龄和忙碌的关系,对于这类书籍,好像越来越难产生共鸣。(油腻中年男子的困惑?)最后,再次申明,本人非常喜欢蔡康永的主持风格。总觉得,蔡康永一直是台湾主持界,最有内涵的主持人。虽然尝试爱屋及乌;但是,这本书我还真的举白旗了。。。

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Sunday, 5 April 2020

The Complete Guide to Spread Trading

I had been searching for books about spread trading since day one. Finally, I found this book. Unfortunately, this book was written many years ago. So, I am a bit skeptical to get it in the first place. Just wondering... how can I miss out this book after reading tons of trading books for the past 20 years? Perhaps... spread was not my favourite those days...

Ended up... to be frank... I am quite disappointed with this book. First of all, this book is quite dull. I would have no hesitation to term it as dry reading. Well, it is similar to a book where we hated so much during those days in university, haha. Perhaps, the spread trading itself is boring (relatively compares to outright trading). So, it might not be the problem with the author. Secondly, I would have anticipated series of technique or fundamentally stuff that can help in spread trading. Ended up, there is nothing new under the sun. The information in this book can easily obtained from google. Finally, I do not agree that this book can helps to "earn a consistent flow of positive returns with less risk", as claimed by the author. By using "info" provided in this book, at most readers understand the fundamentally and logic behind the spread stuff. Apart from that, nothing much can be gain from this book.

Rating wise, I am going to rate this book at 4/10. Well, this is a good book for reference purpose. However, it does not provide much needed "skill" for spread trading. Having said that, I think traders should have this book on the shelf. After all, every trader needs a reference book on spread trading. I wish I could find some other and better books on spread trading in the future. 

Wednesday, 4 March 2020

The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution

Wow... what a book! Jim Simons... an idol for every trader. So far, I think this is the only book in the market about the mighty Quant. I read a Chinese version book about Jim Simons before. However, I remain suspicious on the contents of the book. Hence, when this book was introduced by Michael Covel, I have no hesitation to buy it.

Finally, we have a book that tells the whole story about Jim Simons. Well, I believe this book presented the real Jim Simons compares to those rumors and articles being circulated on the internet. The author did well in presented the whole chronology on how Jim Simons and co started till the latest. Along the way, there are newcomers as well as those who gave up. Hence, we can see how this quant revolution being made. Amazingly, it was an exciting but real tough journey.

You do not have to equipped yourself with great mathematical skill to read this book. The author did so well by presenting simple ideas that every reader shall be able to understand. After all, even if those coding was revealed, we might not understand at all. Basically, finance experts may not understand coding. Same thing applies to coder who may never understand the games of finance. So, again, what Jim Simons achieved, by combining both is really a remarkable stuff.

I believe some readers may be disappointed with this book. After all, this book does not reveal the real secret behind the success of Renaissance. However, like I mentioned above, unless you are a coder, otherwise, there is no point to show you the code. To me, this book is good enough. In fact, I rate it as excellent, 10/10! First of all, it is so hard to get the information on the mighty Jim Simons. Secondly, I am eager to know the history on how Renaissance being established. So, this book revealed what I want. This book is definately well worth reading. It is well written and surely a must read for those who works in financial market like me.

Last but not least... as listed below, I pick out certain points from the book which I found interesting. Thumbs up to the author in writing this book.

Simon quoted: "God gave me a tail to keep off the flies. But I rather have no tail and no flies. That's kind of the way I feel about publicity."

"The lesson was: Do what you like in life, not what you feel you 'should' do," Simon says. "It's something I never forgot."

Lenny Baum developed a saying that became the group's credo: "Bad ideas is good, good idea is terrific, no ideas is terrible."

Markov chains, which are sequences of events in which the probability of what happens next depends only on the current state, not past events.

In a Markov chain, it is impossible to predict future steps with certainty, yet one can observe the chain to make educated guesses about possible outcomes. Baseball can be seen as a Markov game.

A hidden Markov process is one in which the chain of events is governed by unknown, underlying parameters or variables.

"I don't want to have to worry about the market every minute. I want models that will make money while I sleep," Simons said. "A pure system without human interfering."

Stochastic equations, the broader family of equations to which Markov chains belong. Stochastic equations model dynamic processes that evolve over time and can involve a high level of uncertainty.

I strongly believe, for all babies and a significant number of grownups, curiosity is a bigger motivation than money. ~~~ Elwyn Berlekamp

Berlekamp argued that buying and selling infrequently magnifies the consequences of each move. Mess up a couple times, and your portfolio could be doomed. Make a lot of trades, and each individual move is less important, reducing portfolio's overall risk.

Berlekamp and others developed a thesis that locals, or floor traders who buy or sell, like to go home at the end of trading week holding few or no future contracts. Similarly, brokers on the floors of commodity exchanges seemed to trim future positions ahead of the economic reports. Medallion's system would buy when these brokers sold, and sell the investments back to them as they became more comfortable with the risk.

Certain trading bands from Friday morning's action had the uncanny ability to predict bands later that same afternoon, nearer to the close of trading. If market moved higher late in the day, it often paid to buy futures contracts just before the close of trading and dump them at the market's opening the next day.

"I don't know why planets orbit the sun," Simons told a colleague suggesting one needn't spend too much time figuring out why the market's patterns existed. "That doesn't mean I can't predict them."

Simons, too, became nervous when his fund went through rocky times. On the whole, though, Simons maintained faith in his trading models, recalling how difficult it had been for him to invest using his instincts. He made commitment to refrain from overriding the model, hoping to ensure that neither Medallion's returns, nor the emotions of his employees at Renaissance, influenced the fund's moves.

It continued to identify enough winning trades to make serious money, usually by wagering on reversions after stocks got out of whack. Over the years, Renaissance would add twists to this bedrock strategy, but, those would just be second order complements to the firm's core reversion to the mean predictive signals. 

Never place too much trust in trading models. Yes, the firm's system seemed to work, but all formulas are fallible. This conclusion reinforced the fund's approach to managing risk. If a strategy wasn't working, or when market volatility surged, Renaissance's system tended to automatically reduce positions and risk. 

Simons often emphasized the importance of not overriding their trading system. But, in market crisis, he tended to pull back on the reliance on certain signals, to the chagrin of researchers who didn't believe in ever adjusting their computer programs. 

Medallion made between 150,000 and 300,000 trades a day, but much of that activity entailed buying or selling in small chunks to avoid impacting the market prices, rather than profiting by stepping in front of other investors. What Simons and his team were doing wasn't quite investing, but they also weren't flash boys. 

Medallion still held thousands of lonf and short positions at any time, and its holding period ranged from one or two days to one or two weeks. The fund did even faster trades, described by some as high frequency, but many of those were for hedging purposes or to gradually build its positions. "I am not sure we're the best at all aspects of trading, but we're the best at estimating the cost of a trade, " Simons said. 

Medallion still did bond, commodity and currencies trades, and it made money from trending and reversion-predicting signals. The gain on each trade were never huge, and the fund only got it right a bit more than half the time, but that was more than enough. 

How the firm wagered was at least as important as what it wagered on. If they found a profitable signal, the wouldn't buy when the clock struck nine, potentially signalling to others that a move happened each day at that time. Instead, it spread its buying out throughout the hour in unpredictable ways, to preserve its trading signals. 

Instead of the hit-and-miss strategy of trying to find signals using creativity and thought, now you can just throw a class of formulas at machine learning engine and test our millions of different possibilities.