Wednesday, 30 July 2014

李嘉诚:成功没有偶然

李超人的书籍二十年前我还真的看了不少。当年阅读所获得的激励真的不是一般书籍所能提供的。后期,读得越多,越觉得被好多作者误导。作者很多时候东一抄,西一抄的。李超人的故事很多时候反而被神话了。最糟糕的是,这些神话故事只要稍微求证或多阅读,谜底就会不攻自破。影响中,【走出和黄】是李嘉诚相关书籍最好看的一本。至少,里头不会一味的抄袭。很多资料在我过后研究中也真有其事。好吧,就看一看这一本有多神吧,呵呵。。。

结果。。。还是老样子。虽不至于很糟糕,但就是典型的李嘉诚书籍。先打住,说一说优点先吧。。。作者很巧妙的在每一个主题开端前载入李嘉诚先生的谏言。这些谏言还是李先生真实的对话。主题编排方面也做得很好。配合开头的谏言,作者又写入自己的感想。最后,在每一章的尾端,作者也巧妙的插入李先生一些访谈或演讲于作为延伸阅读。一切的一切表面上都铺排的井井有条。这方面,出版社是成功的。。。

但是,作者在置入自己的感想时,却很喜欢天马行空的把一些我个人认为无关痛痒的小故事加插进去。这里头的小故事可以从东方文化延伸至西方世界。最糟糕的是,里头好多不知名的人物还以张三,李四来命名。感觉上,李先生的谏言好像很无辜的被糟蹋了似的。。。再来,后面的附录更沉闷。原以为总结该有些精髓要交代,结果,只是一些重复再重复的句子。

这本书籍,对于从没读过李嘉诚书籍的书虫们,或许是个不错的选择。但,对于我们这些上了年纪的老书虫,还真的没什么吸引力。原以为这本书会凸显李先生近年的思维,结果,还是一本没什么新意的李嘉诚书籍。尽管李先生的谏言值得一读再读(这也是为什么我还是列出了许多经典语录),但是无可否认的事实是:多数的谏言其实在其它书籍或杂志都出现过。。。

以我个人角度,我没办法给予这本书很高的评价。毕竟,这类书已经无法唤起二十年前的那种激情。10分满分,本人给予4分。再次强调,如果读者很少接触关于李先生的书籍,这本书其实是不错的。。。。最后,忠言虽逆耳,还是值得细细回味的。以下的经典语录特别赠与一班当年和我一起闯天下的兄弟们共勉之。加油吧,大家!

在言语,许诺及设定目标等方面,我都慎思和严守纪律,一定不能给人消极脆弱和依赖的印象。这个思维模式不但是对成就的投资,更可建立诚信;你的魅力,表现在你的自律,克已和谦逊中。

我不看小说,也不看娱乐新闻,这是因为我要从小争分夺秒地“抢”学问。

事在人为,不能有志无才。你可以夸口说你的志向是摘下天上的月亮,但你知道怎么摘下吗?所以我说事在人为,靠自己,靠意念,还要有最新的知识及经验累积才能办到。

中国人有句做生意的话:“未买先想卖。” 你应该先想失败会怎么样。因为成功的效果是100%或50%之差别根本不是太重要。

士人第一要有志,第二要有识,第三要有恒。

成功没有绝对方程式。但失败都有定律,减低一切失败的因素就是成功的基石。

以下4点可以增强客服困难和承担风险的能力:
1. 谨守法律和企业守则。2. 严守足够的流动资金。 3. 维持溢利。 4.重视人才。

知足是非常重要的。全世界很多企业之所以失败,最少一半都是因为贪婪。

即使本来有100的力量足以成事,但我要200的力量才去攻。

“杠杆定律”始祖Archimedes曾说:“给我一个支点,我可以举起整个地球。”支点是效率和节省资源策略智慧的出发点。不知从什么时候开始,把这概念简单扭曲为叫人迷思四两拨千斤,以小博大。今天我们看到很多公司只看见千斤和四两的直接可能而忽视了支点的可能性,因为过度扩张而陷入困境。

亲人并不一定就是亲信。一个人,你要跟他相处,日子久了,你觉得他的思路跟你一样是正面的,那你就应该可以信任他;你交给他的每一项重要工作他都会做,这个人就可以做你的亲信。

做人可以做到“仁慈的狮子”,你就成功了。做人应该是这样,很善良,非常好的一个人,但如果人家欺负到你头上,你不能畏缩,要有能力反抗。

世人都想有一本成功的秘笈,有些人穷尽一生精力去寻找这本无字天书,但成功的人一生都在不断编制自己的无字天书。

商业合作必须有三大前提:一是双方必须有可以合作的利益,二是必须有可以合作的意愿,三是双方必须有共享共融的打算。

人们经常花很多的时间去发掘对手的不足,其实看对手的长处更重要。

我觉得范蠡一生可算无憾,有文种这样知心相重的朋友;有共度难关,共度晨光的西施为伴侣;最重要的是,有智慧守候他的终生。我相信他是快乐的,因为他清楚地知道在不同的时候自己要担当什么角色,而且都这样出色,这么诚恳有节。

儒家精神最简单地来讲就是“过犹不及”,这是孔子讲的。还有老子讲的“知止不败”,这两个哲学是非常有用的。

如果你不过分显示自己,就不会招惹敌人的敌意,别人也就无法补捉到你的虚实。我表面谦虚,其实很骄傲,别人天天保持现状,而我自己就想着一直爬上去。

“穷人易过,穷生意难过。”你再穷,你可以买最便宜的米,还是可以过,人家吃肉,你可以吃菜;但是穷生意很难,非常难。

好谋而成,分段治事,不疾而速,无为而治。

Thursday, 24 July 2014

期货英雄3:蓝海密剑期货实盘大赛优秀选手访谈录

这一系列的书籍我看了好多本。兴奋度明显减少着。。。好多金玉良言也随着岁月慢慢的淡化着。。。人生本该如此:不同时期,就是要以不同的心境,做不同的事情。。。但,凡是有这一类书籍,我还是坚持看一下。投机界本身就是个学海无涯的领域。因此,浪费一点时间总好过错过一些讯息。。。好吧,看一看这一本能够提供我什么新的领悟吧。。。

老实说,一开头我就觉得挺纳闷的。这一类的书籍真的开始让我觉得沉闷了。来来去去的道理一直重复着。而我最不能够接受的预测性硬道理好像越来越受推崇。基本上,外国的这一类书籍比较能够凸显内涵及深入的解剖。毕竟,外国受访者都是经历很多年经验才被受访的。而,这一本书却恰恰相反。书里主要是专注于比赛里的参赛者。因此,一刻的荣耀往往很容易被当成是铁一般的事实。我觉的投机界老手阅读还行。新手反而可能被误导。

再来,这一系列书籍和比赛也进行了很多年。以中国快速发展的经济来作比较,怎么读这一本和之前的前几本都有种似曾相似的感觉?简单来说,它就像香港近期的连续剧~~~老掉牙的桥段就是一直在重复着。因此,读完整本书,感觉上没什么新领悟。老实说,倒是有种走火入魔的感觉,呵呵。。。

对于这本书,本人真的感触不多。废书而叹或废书长叹的情形几乎没有。或许这一类书籍有时就象电影里的续集。每一个续集无论怎么努力就是没有第一集来的精彩。很不幸,这本书恰恰在我手里也是落的这样一个尴尬的局面。因此,满分10分,恐怕只能打个3分。这一类书籍也真的读够了。是时候回归于其他书籍了。

Friday, 18 July 2014

做个快乐的读书人

这一类书籍我很少会买。理由是,我真的很怕这类书籍。这类书籍有鸦片的成分。读了一些,就需要不停的找另一些更高层的书籍。不然,脑袋就是得不到应有的营养(呵呵)。但是,这回,还真的破戒了。或许,年龄的增长再加上宝贝女儿的到来真的改变了我不少。。。

结果,感觉还是怪怪的。刘墉的小故事其实很贴心。但,心灵上,我就是感觉不到那一股温馨。或许,年龄层还未到,或许家里的宝贝还没增添太多问题;因此,我还真的体会不到作者写这一本书的用心。

评分方面,基于个人感触不是太多,10分满分,我给个5分。无论如何,这本书我会好好珍藏。我相信,总有一天,我会把这本书重读,而这一天我的体会一定会更深刻,跟透彻。。。

Monday, 14 July 2014

Trading Systems: A New Approach to System Development and Portfolio Optimisation

Another investment stuff... well, World cup month... in order to force myself to be more productive, I purposely choose only topic that I am really keen. As such, I ended up reading only investment stuff during this "hectic" month, LOL.

Wow, this is a simple yet full of details book on system development. Before I continue, allow me to rate this book at 10/10. I think all traders need to have this book. Despite its simplicity, all necessary ingredients are presented. As such, it is a must read for beginners and it will be a good reference and refreshment for others too.

This is not a book showing exciting buy and sells signals. The whole concepts discussed are not direct. However, it provides proper guidelines and details explanation in a systematic manner. Having said that, please do not expect direct formulas and systems to make you rich in a quick manner. After all, system development is more than just buying and selling rules. This book at least helps traders to build up basic concept for further assessment into better stuff in long run. In short, grab a copy of this book and it certainly deserved a place in our book shelf.

Last but not least, listed below are some of the quotes that really "refreshed" me after more than 15 years in this industry. Great job by the authors!!!

If you make a bad trade, you have money management, you have a whole bunch of things that will come to your aid, and you're really not in so much trouble if you make a bad trade. But, if you miss a good trade there's really nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any regularity you're finished, you're doomed in this game. ~~~ Bill Eckhardt

The wider the sample size and the lower the number of variables, the better the estimation ~~~ Calculation of the degrees of freedom= whole date sample - rules and regulations - data consumed by rules and conditions.

The dangerous point for Monte Carlos analysis ~~~ you take a trades from the trading logic as you get them from your back-tests. But, what if this trading logic is only curved fitted and over optimized? The Monte Carlos cannot see this...

My concern is that people are using Monte Carlos as a certainty test. It isn't. It's a probability test.

Given enough complexity, it is always possible to fashion a rule that buys at every market low point and and sells at every market high point. This is a bad idea. Perfect timing on past data can only be the result of a rule that is contaminated with noise. In other words, perfect signals or anything approaching them almost certainly means the rule is, to a disturbing degree, a description of past random behavior (i.e. over-fitted). 

If your trading system is simple enough but has a sound logic with valid rules, it is able to capture some parts of the recurrent predictable patterns but does not adjust itself to the market noise. 

It is often better to use just one or two indicators, or only the price itself... Adding more and more rules will just increase the adaption of your trading system to past market data, but it will not increase its predictive power for real trading. 

Be careful with short data samples regardless of timeframe or trading frequency. If your optimisation windows is short, it is more likely you will miss important data outside of the window. 

If you think that systematic trading is a job for life, please do not overrate the importance of programming skill.  

The more complex the system the more easily it will be over-optimised with too many variables or inputs. If you are not a sophisticated programmer this could be good luck because you will never run the risk of writing codes that are too lengthy. 

Wednesday, 2 July 2014

Trade Like a Pro: 15 High-Profit Trading Strategies

Another hedge fund stuff....

If "More Money Than God" enlighten me in various different ways, the previous book on "Trading Like a Hedge-fund" really disappointed me! Two extreme cases... so, "How to Trade like a Pro" may be another extreme case too, LOL.

At the end… hmm, not extreme at all, LOL…  The author started the book by giving details explanation on how exchange, market and products were built from day one. It is then followed by theories on risk management and mentality preparation on how to be a professional trader. Until then, I was actually quite impressed even though those things sound familiar to me.

Eventually, he moved into technical stuff by presenting several chapters (in fact until the final chapter) on how to trade efficiently.  I started to get very annoyed when the whole stories turned out to be a story purely about options. The worst part is… the author seems to be a very good politician. Although options are presented as main topic, but he did pointed out every weaknesses along each method. At the end, the method which was initially labeled as effective turns out to be something with flaws… Sounds weird but true….

At the end of this book, I really felt like this seems like a book either from brokerage firm or exchanges that are very much looking forward to promote various financial products to the public. No offence to the author. But, I really think KISS (Keep it simple, stupid) is the main key in every industries. Besides, this book is not applicable in certain local markets (Ex. Local derivatives markets). After all, our options sides in FKLI & CPO are still not active. In fact, even it is active; flaws as mentioned in the book surely did enough to scare off traders. End of the day, pricing is still pricing. Each added method will just add more complication

Having said that… I have no choice but to rate this book at 4/10. I would not say this is a bad book. However, the topic presented just does not suit my character. Besides, methods being discussed are not relevant in my situations. This book qualified as a good reference book. However, to trade like a pro, I still think there are better choices to refer to… Ding, ding, ding, time to move on…